Syria's Story: When the Truth Becomes the Victim?

How Syria's peaceful revolution was derailed by foreign powers and extremism, leaving the nation fragmented and its future uncertain in the shadow of competing forces vying for dominance.

This article was published on Jan 1, 2025 in Arabic by Majid Touba, a prominent Jordanian writer and journalist. I have translated it below.

Today, Syrians find themselves in a paradoxical state of elation & anxiety [Getty]

The Syrian Revolution: A Journey from Hope to Turmoil

In our previous discussion, we examined how the peaceful Syrian revolution quickly descended into armed conflict and sectarian divisions. What began as a popular uprising against a brutal regime was rapidly transformed into a sectarian battle between Sunni and Shia factions. This shift was expedited by the intervention of the United States, Israel, Turkey, and some Arab states, all eager to topple the Assad regime as swiftly as Gaddafi’s fall in Libya. Unlike the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, which remained largely peaceful despite state violence, Syria’s revolution spiraled into chaos.

Today, the Syrian people find themselves in a paradoxical state of elation and anxiety. There is joy at the prospect of the Assad regime’s collapse and the dismantling of its oppressive security apparatus. However, this joy is tempered by fear and uncertainty. Over 13 years of civil war have revealed the darkest aspects of human nature, with widespread atrocities and crimes committed by all sides. The seeds of violence, sectarian massacres, and identity-based targeting were not limited to the Assad regime; they also permeated nearly all opposition groups. These armed factions were deliberately shaped by external sponsors along religious and sectarian lines, echoing the chaos of Afghanistan but in an even more grotesque form.

At the height of the conflict, over 500 armed factions, many of them “jihadist” in nature, operated within Syria. Over time, through mergers, eliminations, and destruction, their number has dwindled to around 200 groups. Among them, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged as the dominant force. HTS, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, also includes numerous former ISIS members who have rejoined the al-Qaeda fold. Despite internal competition among the factions, HTS has secured its position as the strongest group due to unwavering support from Turkey and Qatar, forcing other regional and international players to reluctantly accept this reality – at least for now.

The Rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham

HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a man who has rebranded himself as Ahmed al-Sharaa. While HTS is not the most powerful faction collectively compared to the others, its strength lies in its external backing. Turkey and Qatar have heavily invested in HTS, enabling it to consolidate power. This support has allowed HTS to outmaneuver other factions and dominate Syria’s political and military landscape.

However, the lure of absolute power has driven HTS and Julani to act swiftly. While distracting Syrians and the international community with a media blitz focused on mass graves, missing persons, and exaggerated fears of conspiracies by remnants of the Assad regime, HTS has been methodically tightening its grip on Syria.

(While I take issue with the framing of the mass graves as a distraction, I wanted to share Majid’s writing as he wrote it)

With Turkish and other external backing, HTS is rapidly taking control of key institutions, military structures, and civil society, sidelining other opposition forces and non-armed groups.

Marginalization of Nonviolent Opposition

Nonviolent opposition figures, many of whom have spent years advocating for the revolution from abroad, have largely refrained from returning to Syria, even as areas have been “liberated” by HTS and other factions. Figures like secular activist and human rights advocate Haytham Manna, who spent 18 years in Assad’s prisons, face threats from extremist groups. Manna’s story highlights the challenges faced by dissidents who resist both the Assad regime and the rise of jihadist factions.

External Influences and the Future of Syria

Trump says the quiet part out loud: a NATO-backed operation to crush Syria's Resistance, exploit resources, and impose American and Zionist dominance.

Turkey and Qatar have emerged as key players in shaping Syria’s future, operating under the larger umbrella of U.S. and Israeli strategic interests. The United States, which remains unmatched in its influence over Syria and the region, seeks to ensure that Syria remains fragmented and weak. Israel has also capitalized on the conflict, securing significant strategic gains. It has occupied nearly a third of Syria, destroyed its heavy weaponry and research facilities, and severed critical supply lines between Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. While Israel has indicated it will withdraw from some occupied areas, it is unlikely to relinquish strategic regions like the Golan Heights without a significant conflict.

The possibility of Syria’s division along ethnic and sectarian lines remains a viable scenario for the U.S., given the country’s diverse demographic makeup. Meanwhile, the prospect of a unified Syrian state built on citizenship and equality seems distant, as opposition factions continue to embrace ideologies rooted in sectarianism and exclusion.

The Role of Turkey and Qatar

Turkey’s involvement in Syria is driven by multiple objectives. It seeks to resolve its Kurdish issue, manage the 3 million Syrian refugees within its borders, and capitalize on economic opportunities in Syria’s reconstruction. Turkey also aims to strengthen its geopolitical position and secure maritime boundaries with Syria during this period of weakness.

Qatar’s motivations are tied to its strained relationship with Assad, particularly his refusal to allow a Qatari gas pipeline through Syria to Europe before the revolution. Qatar now hopes to revive this project with Syria’s new leadership, aligning its economic interests with U.S. objectives to counter Russian energy dominance in Europe. Additionally, Qatar views its role in toppling Assad as a means of rehabilitating its relationship within the broader U.S.-led regional order.

Challenges of Extremist Rule

The prospect of HTS or similar extremist factions ruling Syria raises profound concerns. Syria’s rich cultural and intellectual heritage is at odds with the narrow, exclusionary vision of groups like HTS. Under their rule, freedoms, arts, and diversity would be suppressed in favor of rigid religious dogma. Such a regime would prioritize sectarian purity and moral policing over development, stability, and progress.

Figures like the late Michel Kilo, Haytham Manna, and Adonis, who embody Syria’s cultural and intellectual legacy, would find no place in a state governed by extremist ideologies. The replacement of Assad’s authoritarian rule with a regime that claims divine legitimacy and suppresses dissent in the name of religious orthodoxy would represent a tragic loss for Syria.

A Glimmer of Hope

Despite these challenges, there is hope for Syria. The Syrian people, with their deep historical roots and progressive spirit, are unlikely to accept Taliban-style governance. While external forces and extremist factions have caused immense suffering, Syria’s resilient society holds the potential to resist and rebuild.

The question remains: Can Syria rise above its divisions and external manipulations to reclaim its identity as a unified, progressive state? Or will it succumb to prolonged fragmentation and authoritarianism? The answer lies in the determination of its people and the global community’s commitment to genuine stability.

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